Democratic Circus?

I could tell when I went to the running track yesterday evening that something big was going down in Saratok - a marquee had been erected and a little wooden walkway from the track to the car park.  Sure enough, this morning five helicopters descended on the track, greeted by a motorcade and police motorbike escort to whisk the Prime Minister of Malaysia, Najib Razak to a political rally in the centre of town.  With him was the local Barisan Nasional candidate and Abdul Taib Mahmud, the First Chief Minister of Sarawak.  

I decided to follow the commotion and cycle into Saratok with my camera.  There's a general election here on 5th May and I'm increasingly curious about what will happen.  Barisan Nasional (BN or the National Front) has been in power here since Malaysia became independent in the early sixties.  It's a complex coalition of political parties representing the main ethnic groups in Malaysia, (Malay, Chinese, Indian and indigenous tribes) and one of its aims is to keep Malaysia essentially Malay and muslim in character (Malays are about 50% of the population), whilst protecting the interests of the other ethnic groups.  But its grip on power is slipping, in the last general election BN's majority shrank considerably and there are now people seriously suggesting that an opposition coalition, led by the PKR or People's Justice Party could win the next election.

What makes all this so interesting for an outsider is the byzantine nature of Malaysian politics and the fact that being in government here gives you access to enormous wealth and massive levels of patronage.  Anwar Ibrahim the leader of the PKR was at one time a Deputy Prime Minister in the BN government and has been imprisoned for corruption and sodomy (yes, sodomy) a charge of which he was acquitted in 2012.  One of BN's trump election cards has always been national unity and the fear that if it loses power there will be an explosion of ethnic violence, as happened in the late 1960s.  I have absolutely no idea whether the PKR, who are campaigning on an anti-corruption platform, have any chance of winning the election, but locally lots of people have been telling us that they will vote for them.  Also since the announcement of the election I have noticed more and more opposition party flags being raised in Saratok and some of the outlying tribal longhouses.  Before the election was announced one tended only to see the BN flag (white scales of justice on a blue background).

What was clear from going to the BN rally is that they are campaigning hard.  As one would expect the PM is a pretty good speaker who can rally the faithful.  The event also seemed to me to be an expression of state power not just a party rally.  Maybe it's just me, but it felt like the police and the other uniforms around weren't so much independent as a part of the process.  I think I need to go to a PKR rally to see if there is a difference in the attitude of the para-militaries.

As an outsider the situation seems really unpredictable.  Do the PKR stand any chance?  If they did get a majority would BN go quietly?  Giving up government here also means letting go of a lot of wealth and power.  Would they do this without a fight?  And how deep do the ethnic tensions here really run? Sometimes this place feels like a powder keg, but it is also growing economically, so maybe people have enough to lose to make ethnic violence unlikely.  I suspect BN will win by hook or by crook and that things will drift on as they are now.  But nothing would actually surprise me and it's been a long time since I could say that about a British general election.